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Graph of Plan

Market Timing Is Right

The market for agent infrastructure is emerging now, and we’re early enough to establish position but not so early that we’ll exhaust runway waiting.

The Assumption

Timing is one of the hardest things to get right. We’re betting on a Goldilocks window:

Not too early:

  • Customers understand the need for agent infrastructure
  • Budget exists for agent tooling
  • Technical patterns are established enough to build on

Not too late:

  • Incumbents haven’t locked up the market
  • Category definitions still fluid
  • Early movers can establish positioning

Evidence

“Now is the time” signals:

  • Claude, GPT-4, Gemini all capable of autonomous code execution
  • Agent frameworks (LangChain, CrewAI, AutoGPT) gaining adoption
  • Competitors raising funding (E2B, Modal, etc.) — validates market
  • Cloudflare investing in agent infrastructure (@cloudflare/sandbox)
  • Enterprise AI spending increasing rapidly

Market maturity indicators:

  • “AI agents” recognised term (not needing explanation)
  • Job postings for “AI/ML platform engineer” increasing
  • Conference tracks dedicated to agent infrastructure
  • VC firms raising AI-focused funds

Counter-signals:

  • Many agent projects are demos, not production systems
  • “AI winter” risk if hype cycle crashes
  • May still be too early for enterprises (security concerns)
  • Regulatory uncertainty creating buyer hesitation

Counter-Evidence

Too early signals:

  • Customers say “maybe next year”
  • Education costs dominate sales conversations
  • No competitor activity for 12+ months
  • Agent hype cycle crashes

Too late signals:

  • Big tech announces competing products
  • Incumbents (AWS, GCP) enter with agent platforms
  • Category leaders emerge with dominant market share
  • Pricing pressure from well-funded competitors

Current assessment:

  • Neither extreme seems true today
  • Market is active but not overcrowded
  • Customers curious but not yet urgent
  • Window may be 12-24 months

Impact If Wrong

If too early:

  • Runway exhausts waiting for market to materialise
  • Education costs eat into margins
  • Pivot required to sustain business
  • May need to hibernate and restart later

If too late:

  • Dominant players already established
  • Forced into niche positioning
  • Pricing pressure from well-funded competitors
  • May need to find adjacent market

Products affected: All products, but SmartBoxes most directly

Strategic options if wrong:

  • Too early: Extend runway, consult while waiting, pivot to adjacent market
  • Too late: Niche down, differentiate on specific use case, consider acquisition

Testing Plan

Market signals to monitor:

Weekly:

  • Competitor launches and funding announcements
  • Developer community activity (GitHub stars, Discord activity)
  • Social media engagement on agent topics

Monthly:

  • Sales conversation quality (urgency, budget, timeline)
  • Competitor pricing changes
  • Conference and event activity

Quarterly:

  • Enterprise AI spending reports
  • Analyst coverage of agent infrastructure
  • Regulatory developments

Leading indicators of “too early”:

  • Sales cycles >6 months consistently
  • “Let’s talk next quarter” as common response
  • Demos but no trials, trials but no purchases

Leading indicators of “too late”:

  • Competitors announcing enterprise deals
  • Price wars starting
  • Customers asking “why not [incumbent]?”

Timeline: Continuous monitoring, quarterly assessment

Kill criteria: If 12 months pass with no meaningful revenue AND competitors not succeeding either, market may not exist. If competitors raising late-stage rounds while we have no traction, we may be too late.

Depends on:

Enables:

Affects all products:

Creates risk:

Assumption

The market for agent infrastructure is emerging now, and we’re early enough to establish position but not so early that we’ll exhaust runway waiting.

Depends On

This assumption only matters if these are true:

Enables

If this assumption is true, these become relevant:

How To Test

Track agent adoption curves; monitor competitor funding; assess customer urgency in sales conversations.

Validation Criteria

This assumption is validated if:

  • Competitors raising significant funding
  • Customers have budget allocated for agent tooling
  • Urgent demand in discovery calls

Invalidation Criteria

This assumption is invalidated if:

  • Customers say ‘maybe next year’
  • No competitor activity for 12+ months
  • Agent hype cycle crashes

Dependent Products

If this assumption is wrong, these products are affected: