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Graph of Plan

Agencies Feel Delivery Pain

Digital agencies and consultancies experience significant pain around project delivery prediction, and would pay for a solution.

The Assumption

Murphy (our project delivery prediction product) depends on this assumption entirely. We’re betting that:

  1. Agencies consistently struggle with delivery prediction
  2. This causes real business pain (missed deadlines, scope creep, margin erosion)
  3. Existing tools (Linear, Jira, Asana) don’t solve it
  4. Agencies would pay for a solution

If agencies don’t care about delivery prediction, or won’t pay to solve it, Murphy fails regardless of how good the product is.

Evidence

Industry signals:

  • “Why is software always late?” is a perennial question
  • Agencies frequently burn margin on fixed-price projects
  • Client relationships strained by delivery surprises
  • Project managers spend enormous time on status updates

Existing solutions gaps:

  • Jira/Linear track tasks, not delivery probability
  • Gantt charts assume linear progress (wrong for creative work)
  • Estimation is manual, not AI-augmented
  • No tools predict delays before they happen

Counter-signals:

  • Agencies have survived without prediction tools forever
  • Some agencies claim estimation is “just experience”
  • Prediction might threaten PM job security
  • “Good enough” solutions may satisfy
  • Free tools like Notion/Trello widely used

Counter-Evidence

What would prove this wrong:

  • Agencies satisfied with existing tools
  • Delivery prediction not ranked in top 3 challenges
  • Price sensitivity prevents viable business (agencies won’t pay $500+/month)
  • Agencies prefer to hire more PMs rather than buy tools

Warning signs:

  • Agency owners say “that’s interesting” but don’t pay
  • Sales cycles extremely long (>3 months)
  • Feature requests veer toward generic PM software
  • No inbound demand after content marketing

Impact If Wrong

Products affected: Murphy entirely

Revenue at risk: £19K Year 1 (Murphy revenue milestone)

Strategic impact:

  • Murphy becomes a dead end
  • Focus shifts entirely to SmartBoxes/Nomos
  • Agency expertise becomes less valuable
  • Need different ICP for second product

Time at risk: 3-6 months of Murphy development potentially wasted

Testing Plan

Customer discovery:

  1. 10 interviews with agency owners/PMs
  2. Survey agency communities (Agency Life, etc.)
  3. Analyse agency Twitter/LinkedIn for pain points

Key questions:

  • “What’s your biggest operational challenge?”
  • “What happens when projects run late?”
  • “How much does a late project cost you?”
  • “What would you pay to predict delays?”

Demand signals:

  • Landing page with “join waitlist” button
  • Technical content about project prediction
  • Track inbound vs. outbound interest

Timeline: 2 months of discovery before committing to Murphy build

Kill criteria: If 0/10 agencies express strong interest AND waitlist conversion below 5%, deprioritise Murphy.

Supports product:

  • Murphy — entire Murphy premise depends on this

Customer segment:

Affects milestones:

Conflicts with (time):

Assumption

Digital agencies and consultancies experience significant pain around project delivery prediction, and would pay for a solution.

Depends On

This assumption only matters if these are true:

Enables

If this assumption is true, these become relevant:

How To Test

Discovery calls with agency owners; analysis of agency failure modes; competitive research on project management tools.

Validation Criteria

This assumption is validated if:

  • 5+ agencies express strong interest
  • Willingness to pay at target price point
  • Pain point ranked in top 3 challenges

Invalidation Criteria

This assumption is invalidated if:

  • Agencies satisfied with existing tools
  • Delivery prediction not a priority
  • Price sensitivity prevents viable business

Dependent Products

If this assumption is wrong, these products are affected:

Dependent Milestones

If this assumption is wrong, these milestones are affected: