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Graph of Plan

AI Productivity Gains Are Sustained

AI coding assistance (Claude Code, Cursor, Copilot) productivity gains will sustain beyond the novelty period and continue improving.

The Assumption

“Can Ship Fast Enough” depends entirely on AI productivity. But current evidence might be novelty effect:

  • New tool excitement drives engagement
  • Learning curve hasn’t hit yet
  • Hard problems haven’t been encountered
  • AI limitations not yet discovered

If productivity gains fade after 6 months, the solo founder model fails.

Evidence

Current evidence:

  • Graph-of-plan shipped with heavy AI assistance
  • Shipbox prototype functional
  • Subjective sense of significant speedup

Supporting signals:

  • AI tools improving quarter over quarter
  • Industry reports showing sustained productivity gains
  • Successful precedents of AI-augmented solo founders

Counter-signals:

  • Novelty effect is real and well-documented
  • AI generates plausible-but-wrong code that requires debugging
  • Complex architecture still requires human judgment
  • Context limits mean AI loses track of large projects

What Would Prove This Wrong

  • Productivity gains fade noticeably after 6 months
  • Time spent fixing AI errors exceeds time saved
  • AI tools plateau or degrade in capability
  • Complex problems remain intractable with AI help

Impact If Wrong

If AI productivity doesn’t sustain:

  • Shipping takes 2-3x longer than planned
  • 4 products becomes 1-2 products
  • Runway exhausts before validation
  • Need co-founder or contractors

Testing Plan

Tracking:

  • Personal productivity metrics over time
  • Time per feature (objective)
  • Subjective productivity rating (weekly)
  • AI vs. manual time split

External signals:

  • Industry reports on AI coding tool effectiveness
  • Other solo founders’ experiences
  • AI tool capability announcements

Review: Monthly comparison against baseline

Kill criteria: If Month 6 productivity is less than 50% of Month 1 productivity, reassess the solo model.

Depends on:

Affects:

  • Entire execution timeline

Assumption

AI coding assistance (Claude Code, Cursor, Copilot) productivity gains will sustain beyond the novelty period and continue improving.

Depends On

This assumption only matters if these are true:

How To Test

Track personal productivity metrics over time. Monitor industry reports on AI coding tool effectiveness.

Validation Criteria

This assumption is validated if:

  • Productivity gains maintained after 6 months of use
  • AI tools continue improving measurably quarter over quarter
  • Can complete projects that would be impossible solo without AI

Invalidation Criteria

This assumption is invalidated if:

  • Productivity gains fade after novelty period
  • AI tools plateau or degrade in capability
  • Time spent fixing AI errors exceeds time saved

Current Evidence

  • Graph-of-plan built with heavy AI assistance
  • Subjective sense of productivity increase